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Increasing worries exist about the potential of military engagement among East African neighbours, Ethiopia and the Eritrean government, as confrontational discourse has escalated in recent weeks.

What Has Ethiopia Said?

Landlocked Ethiopia's demands for entry to the maritime outlet through Eritrean territory has provoked a intense rhetorical conflict.

PM Abiy Ahmed first openly declared in 2023 that his country's sea access was an crucial concern, remarks that Eritrean authorities rejected.

Diplomatic connections between the both governments have often been tense. Following a long-standing struggle for freedom, Eritrea, which has a 1,350km (840-mile) sea border, officially seceded from Ethiopian rule in the early 1990s, rendering it without sea access.

Five years later, a territorial conflict erupted in which numerous people lost their lives.

Recent Comments from Ethiopian Government

Prime Minister Abiy and military leader Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have directly stated ownership of Eritrea's coastal city of Assab – some 60 km from the border - and suggested the desire to capture it through military means.

In early September, Abiy said Ethiopia's "mistake" of being denied passage to the sea as a result of Eritrean independence would be "rectified soon".

The Ethiopian envoy to Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that Assab was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be restored "by force".

Eritrea's Response to the Threats

In the face of ongoing challenges from Ethiopia, Eritrea's response has been confined to short statements on social media from Information Minister Yemane G..

The minister has dismissed Ethiopia's demand for maritime entry calling it "risky" and a "negative policy" of "territorial claims" – a strategy of claiming back lost territory.

Eritrean authorities warned on mid-September that efforts to justify "obvious provocation" would have major implications for Ethiopia and its regional partners and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Activities on the Region

So far, there are few indications of large-scale army activities in the boundary zones between the two countries.

However, in the country, state television has displayed graduation ceremonies of many recruits at different defense facilities.

The director of human resources department of the defense force, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, commented lately in an discussion that the army was in a "reliable position" as "tens of thousands of youths" were enlisting, which he said was "a signal to our enemies".

Past Origins of the Tension

For decades from the late 19th century, Eritrea was ruled by Italian colonisers.

After the end of Italian rule, it was then controlled by the UK forces before turning into a associated territory of Ethiopia.

Yet in the early 1960s the Ethiopian emperor terminated this agreement and Eritrea became completely integrated into Ethiopia.

A three-decade long internal conflict occurred, finishing with Ethiopia's defeat in the early 1990s. Independence was then approved by the population in a plebiscite in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were good relations between the leadership in Ethiopia's capital and Asmara, but they disagreed over the specific demarcation of their common border, resulting in war in 1998.

Although this finished in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the neighbors stayed at loggerheads.

This changed in 2018, when the Prime Minister made approaches to Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki. The both leaders endorsed a announcement that the conflict was over – a move that won the Prime Minister the prestigious award.

The two governments were then allies in the country's previous internal conflict in Tigray.

Yet diplomatic connections have subsequently deteriorated anew.