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Just 48 hours to go.

England's opening match in Australia gets under way on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It’s challenging to make runs, isn't it?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are bothering to turn up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has focused on the apparent challenge of scoring runs, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, especially against pace bowling, no nation has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A common belief from English cricket describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average below 17.

Aside from Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home Test without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, including a victory against England in Adelaide four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, results have remained strong – England should take heed.

Tough at the top

Remember when England could not find an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners faster than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Since Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a factor in Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who famously struck the first ball of the last Ashes series for four, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australia.

His batting average rises when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has brought him back, probably back at three.

Across seven matches in the current year, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, spinners have averaged almost 44 in Australia, though Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was brought in, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series began in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide.

England have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have visited 14 times since 1970 and won only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the itinerary are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.

Perth hosts an series opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the tourists approach with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the location for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

The home side have secured victory in four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India last year.

Every Test at the new venue has been claimed by the team batting first.

England often complicate day-night matches, when data suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

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